BMI View: The outlook for Zimbabwe's power sector is moderate but market opportunities for private investors are limited. On the upside, a number of major projects will boost generation later in the 10-year forecast period, mainly in coal-fired and hydropower. This will be underpinned by a steady rise in demand for electricity as the economy and population grows. However, the operating environment will remain extremely challenging. A major obstacle will be the absence of a regulatory framework which allows for private competition and the effective insolvency of Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority Holdings (ZESA) which enjoys a monopoly of generation, transmission and distribution. Beyond this, the political and macroeconomic environment is unstable, corruption is rife and the government makes periodic threats to seize foreign-owned assets in the country. In this context, the most lucrative market opportunity is in the sale of rooftop solar panels, which are in increasing demand due to the failure of the ZESA to provide adequate supplies of electricity from the grid. Key Forecasts ? Power generation will increase by 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to 8.2TWh, and by 91.0% over the ten-year timeframe, reaching 15.7TWh in 2023. ? Power consumption will increase by 2.5% y-o-y in 2014 to 13.3TWh, rising to 21.4TWh by 2023. This implies potential for the export of electricity.
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