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Zimbabwe Power Report Q3 2014
Publication Date Jul 2014
Product Type Report
Pages 70
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BMI View: The outlook for Zimbabwe's power sector is moderate but market opportunities for private
investors are limited. On the upside, a number of major projects will boost generation later in the 10-year
forecast period, mainly in coal-fired and hydropower. This will be underpinned by a steady rise in demand
for electricity as the economy and population grows. However, the operating environment will remain
extremely challenging. A major obstacle will be the absence of a regulatory framework which allows for
private competition and the effective insolvency of Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority Holdings (ZESA)
which enjoys a monopoly of generation, transmission and distribution. Beyond this, the political and
macroeconomic environment is unstable, corruption is rife and the government makes periodic threats to
seize foreign-owned assets in the country. In this context, the most lucrative market opportunity is in the
sale of rooftop solar panels, which are in increasing demand due to the failure of the ZESA to provide
adequate supplies of electricity from the grid.
Key Forecasts
? Power generation will increase by 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014 to 8.2TWh, and by 91.0% over the
ten-year timeframe, reaching 15.7TWh in 2023.
? Power consumption will increase by 2.5% y-o-y in 2014 to 13.3TWh, rising to 21.4TWh by 2023. This
implies potential for the export of electricity.

BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7
Key Forecasts ......................................................................................................................................... 7
Recent Developments ............................................................................................................................... 7
SWOT ................................................................................................................................... 9
Industry Forecast .............................................................................................................. 11
Zimbabwe Snapshot ................................................................................................................................ 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zimbabwe 2013-2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zimbabwe 2018-2023) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Zimbabwe Power Forecast Scenario ........................................................................................................... 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity ................................................................................ 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2018-2023) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2018-2023) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Electricity Consumption .......................................................................................................................... 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports .................................................................................... 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2018-2023) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2018-2023) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .......................................................................................... 27
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings ............................................................................................................... 27
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Zimbabwe Power Risk/Reward Ratings ........................................................................................................ 36
Rewards .............................................................................................................................................. 36
Risks ................................................................................................................................................... 36
Market Overview ............................................................................................................... 38
Key Policies And Market Structure .............................................................................................................. 38
Southern Africa Power Projects Database .................................................................................................... 44
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Competitive Landscape .................................................................................................... 49
Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 54
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview ................................................................................................ 54
Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 64
Methodology And Sources ......................................................................................................................... 64
Industry Forecast Methodology ................................................................................................................ 64
Sources ............................................................................................................................................... 67
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ............................................................................................................ 67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

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