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Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2012-2022
Publication Date Jan 2012
Product Type Report
Pages 191
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Electric vehicles just became exciting. For 111 years, electric cars that rely only on a battery - "pure EVs" - have had a range of only 30-50 miles and the humble golf car has been the only type selling in hundreds of thousands every year. However, huge changes were announced in 2009/10. Electric vehicles are penetrating the market rapidly to constitute 35% of the cars made in 2025 - probably 25% hybrids, 10% pure EV but pure EV may be winning by then. Any motor manufacturer without a compelling line up of electric vehicles is signing its death warrant.
 
These changes include:
 
  • Launch of cars that have a range of 250 miles or more in pure electric mode, including a pure EV family car made in China and plug in hybrid gasoline-electric and diesel-electric cars.
  • Launch of the Toyota Prius plug in hybrid that is very attractive to over one million purchasers of the existing Prius mild hybrid and millions of others. 95% of Prius owners would buy another.
  • First full production of the beautiful Tesla pure EV luxury sports car and other sports cars which silently outperform conventional equivalents.
  • Large initial orders show that this can be a multibillion dollar sector of the EV car business, particularly if we include new luxury hybrids such as the gorgeous Fiskar Karma and what may result from Ferrari, Porsche and others racing to catch up.
  • Lithium electric car batteries from companies such as LGChem are claimed to last at least ten years, not the more usual three years. This hugely improves the economics of all EVs with range acceptable to mainstream purchasers.
  • President Obama's Stimulus Bill granted $14.4 billion for hybrids and huge sums have been allotted by other governments across the world to develop and subsidise use of EV cars to save the planet and the car industry and provide independence from dwindling oil reserves.

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. The market for electric cars
1.2. Hybrid vs pure EV forecasts
1.3. Will cars be plugged in during a journey?
1.4. Geographical demand
1.5. Progress of the market leader Toyota
1.6. Golf cars will have little growth.
1.7. Technical progress
2. INTRODUCTION
2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out.
2.2. Danger signs
2.3. Government support
2.4. Reluctant Australia
2.5. Formidable initiatives in the USA
2.6. Europe the laggard
2.6.1. Impressive efforts in Germany
2.7. Formidable East Asia
2.8. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
2.9. Providing charging infrastructure
2.9.1. Recharging points
2.9.2. Battery changing points
2.9.3. Can the grid cope?
3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS
3.1. The arguments against
3.2. Déjà Vu
3.3. Examples of pure EV cars
3.3.1. Nissan - most ambitious of all?
3.3.2. Here come the Chinese - BYD and Brilliance
3.3.3. High performance pure EVs - Tesla
3.3.4. Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar
3.3.5. Heuliez Friendly
3.3.6. REVA
3.3.7. Coda - Hafei Saibao, China
3.3.8. ElBil Norge Buddy
3.3.9. Toyota
3.3.10. Detroit Electric
3.3.11. Tara Tiny
3.3.12. Aixam
3.3.13. Zap Alias
3.3.14. Mitsubishi
3.3.15. Golf EVs
4. HYBRID CARS
4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
4.2. Evolution
4.3. Chevrolet Volt
4.4. Bright Automotive SUV
4.5. Market drivers
4.5.1. Leading indicators
4.6. History of hybrids and planned models to 2013
5. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS
5.1. Three key enabling technologies become six
5.2. Many new forms of range extender
5.3. Supercapacitors
5.4. Energy harvesting
5.5. Printed electronics and electrics
5.6. Structural components and smart skin
5.7. Innovative charging
5.8. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors
5.9. Third generation traction batteries
6. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY
6.1. Series vs parallel hybrid
6.2. Modes of operation of hybrids
6.2.1. Plug in hybrids
6.2.2. Charge-depleting mode
6.2.3. Blended mode
6.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode
6.2.5. Mixed mode
6.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer
6.4. Deep hybridisation
6.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium
6.6. Battery cost and performance are key
6.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies
6.8. Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors
6.9. Where supercapacitors fit in
6.10. Advantages and disadvantages
6.11. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?
6.12. Supercabatteries or bacitors
6.13. What is a range extender?
6.14. What will be required of a range extender 2012-2022
6.15. Three generations of range extender
6.15.1. First generation range extender technology
6.15.2. Second generation range extender technology
6.15.3. Third generation range extender technology
6.16. Fuel cell range extenders
6.17. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined
6.18. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles
6.19. Trend to high voltage
6.20. Component choices for energy density/ power density
6.21. Trend to distributed components
6.22. Trend to flatness then smart skin
7. MARKET FORECASTS
7.1. Car production
7.2. Cars and crude oil
7.2.2. Technical progress
7.3. Hybrid cars
7.3.1. History of hybrid car sales
7.4. Forecasts 2010-2020
7.5. Pure EVs
7.5.1. Total market
7.5.2. Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids?
7.5.3. Market excluding golf cars
7.5.4. Golf cars
7.5.5. Fuel cell EVs
7.6. Battery trends
8. GAS STATIONS BY COUNTRY
8.1. What level of recharging infrastructure is needed?
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
1.2. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2010-2020
1.3. Global electric car sales in thousands for 2011 and 2012 by manufacturer including neighbourhood electric vehicles NEV but not golf cars.
1.4. Toyota Prius sales 1997-2010 by region in thousands
1.5. Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of unites and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
1.6. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and % rounded
1.7. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.9. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
1.10. Approximate number of new hybrid car models planned by year 2000 to 2013
1.11. Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.12. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
1.13. Global oil reserves, production and life
2.1. European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros
2.2. Global stimulus for fuel efficient cars in 2009
2.3. 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of EV cars
3.1. 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers
4.1. Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales
4.2. Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid
4.3. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
4.4. Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011
6.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output
7.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel
7.2. Global oil reserves, production and life
7.3. Global sales of EV cars, including hybrids, pure EVs (including golf cars), total in thousands of units and ones that can be plugged in 2010-2020
7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
7.5. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008
7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole.
7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
7.8. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
7.9. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers
7.10. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025
7.11. Approximate number of hybrid models actual and planned by year 2000 to 2013
7.12. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.13. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids
8.1. Number of gas stations ("service stations") by region in 2010
FIGURES
1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2012-2022, rounded
1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2012-2022, rounded
1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2012-2022, rounded
1.4. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000
1.5. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %
1.6. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally
1.7. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.9. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
1.10. Cumulative number of hybrid car models and projected number of hybrid sales to 2020
1.11. Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2009-2013
1.12. The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2009-2013
1.13. Global number of on-road plug in cars - hybrid and pure electric - and number routinely plugged in away from home in thousands 2010-2020
1.14. Clockwise from top left: BYD E6 from China, Tesla, Fisker Karma and Prius
1.15. Oil reserve life in years by country
1.16. US oil production and imports
2.1. Geographical distribution of 80 companies making or intending to make electric cars
2.2. GE WattStation
3.1. Trouvé pure EV car in 1881
3.2. Red Bug pure EV in 1930
3.3. Sinclair C5
3.4. Aptera
3.5. Gemcars
3.6. The BYD E6 pure EV car
3.7. Tesla Motors Roadster pure EV performance car
3.8. Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar showing solar panels on roof and hood
3.9. Pininfarina Bolloré Bluecar cross section
3.10. Heuliez Friendly
3.11. REVA pure EV car
3.12. The all-electric Coda car, made in China
3.13. Buddy pure EV
3.14. Planned Toyota pure EV city car
3.15. Tara Tiny
3.16. Aixam Mega City
3.17. ZAP Alias pure EV three wheeler
3.18. Mitsubishi pure EV car
3.19. Tonaro from China
3.20. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China
3.21. Yongkang Fourstar from China
3.22. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars
4.1. Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles
4.2. Chevrolet Volt internal structure
4.3. Chevrolet Volt drive train
4.4. Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning
4.5. Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type
4.6. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
5.1. Planned Jaguar long range supercar with two micro turbine range extenders generating 140kW total
5.2. Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen
5.3. Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants
5.4. Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car.
5.5. Drayson electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries
5.6. Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in.
6.1. Some hybrid variants
6.2. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids
6.3. Trend to deep hybridisation
6.4. Evolution of hybrid structure
6.5. Price premium for hybrid buses
6.6. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical
6.7. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored
6.8. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs
6.9. Comparison of battery technologies
6.10. Where supercapacitors fit in
6.11. Energy density vs power density for storage devices
6.12. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade.
6.13. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade
6.14. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories
6.15. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with "gen" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity
6.16. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells
6.17. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years
6.18. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade.
6.19. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles
6.20. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles
6.21. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles
6.22. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels
6.23. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution
6.24. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution
6.25. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs
6.26. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof
7.1. Global bicycle and car production millions
7.2. US oil production and imports
7.3. Global sales of EV cars, hybrids, pure EVs and total in numbers 2010-2020
7.4. HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006
7.5. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units
7.6. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009
7.7. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole
7.8. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market
7.9. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006
7.10. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009
7.11. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007
7.12. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007
7.13. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007
7.14. Hybrid vehicle sales by model
7.15. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units
7.16. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales by territory 2010-2020 in units and %.
7.17. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers
7.18. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales
7.19. Total sales and hybrids
7.20. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.21. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.22. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies total value in billions of dollars 2012 to 2022, rounded
7.23. Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010

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